Alabama's most likely defeat

MurraySports  Mobile Version

With college football season just around the corner, Alabama is once again the team to beat. The Crimson Tide finished last season with a 13-1 record and won the national championship. Over the last 10 years they won have the national championship five times. So, they are clearly the team at the top of the heap.

And yet, they have only managed to run the table once, going 14-0 in 2009. So, odds are, they are going to lose somewhere alog the way. Indeed, a close look at the Massey Ratings indicates that there is a 55 percent chance that they will lose at least one game during the regular season.

So, which game will it be? Who has the best chance of beating Alabama?

The Massey Ratings give three teams no chance at all - Arkansas State, Louisiana Lafayette, and the Citadel. And who can blame them? The Citadel is a middle of the road FCS team. Arkansas State is an FBS team, but they finished 7-5 last year and their best win was against New Mexico State. Louisiana Lafayette is also an FBS school, but they finished 5-7 last year and lost to Appalachian State 63-14.

Only three teams are given more than a 10 percent chance of beating Alabama - Louisville, LSU, and Auburn.

Louisville has an 11 percent chance of pulling the upset. And the Cardinals did beat Alabama the last time the two teams played. But with Lamar Jackson in the NFL now, a repeat of that 34-7 victory in 1991 seems extremely unlikely.

The Massey Ratings give LSU an 18 percent chance of pulling of an upset. The Tigers finished 9-4 last year and they were competitive against the Tide, losing 24-10. Plus, the game is in Baton Rouge this year.

Auburn is given a 20 percent chance of beating Alabama. They did just that last year, beating the Crimson Tide 26-14 en route to a 10-4 record. They are Alabama's biggest rival. And they have beaten them three times in the last eight years.

So, who has the best chance of beating Alabama? Auburn, of course.

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